The crucial mayoral election in 2013

ICheck out this excerpt from Chapter 16 on crainsnewyork.com

In his new book, Modern New York: The Life and Economics of a City, being published this week, Crain's columnist Greg David explores the major events and controversies of the past half-century that affect New York City even today.

In the following excerpt, Mr. David offers an assessment of the current state of the city that may surprise even seasoned observers.

Barring another meltdown or terrorist attack, the New York that Mayor Michael Bloomberg will turn over to his successor on Jan. 1, 2014, will be prosperous, safe, sound and a magnet for the rest of the nation, if not the world. The recession had only nicked New York, and its employment is nearing the 1969 peak even with a too-high unemployment rate. His police commissioner, Ray Kelly, has continued to drive down crime for almost 12 years, employing technology to offset a decline in the number of police.

But it will also be a city that is not growing as quickly as the mayor proclaimed. He had expected the 2010 Census to show New York at a record 8.4 million people, on its way to 9 million in the year 2030. When the Census found only 8.175 million people, he yelled foul and claimed that it had missed at least 50,000 New Yorkers. Even if he was right, the number is well below his projection.

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